Population Spread and Poverty in Nigeria.

Poverty is a topic that catches the attention of people across the world as it shows that a group of people have less than a convenient quality of life. Many scholars and researchers have published works and books on why Poverty remains in many countries. Many have brilliantly written on causes of poverty, and I align with them.

Various factors are concerned when things go right or wrong. It is very rarely because of a single component, item, or idea. It is usually as a result of a collection or series of components, items, and ideas. That being said, each of these ideas weighs differently as individual parts of the system. So, even when the system is not well coupled, the heavier components may show their weight. Researchers have opined various ideas why we have poverty in Nigeria and they include weak institutions, lack of capital and technology, mistrust, corruption, etc.

My focus is on what I would call the Minimum Viable Population for towns and communities. The concept of the Minimum Viable Population is originally in Ecology and Biology, but I would use it in explaining poverty. It is important that we understand the original concept. The minimum viable population (MVP) is a lower bound on the population of a species, such that it can survive in the wild. So, rather than measure survival, I would look at thriving. One can survive in poverty, but thriving normally leads to prosperity. The empirical question to ask is “What is the minimum number of people to live in a community to thrive? What is the optimum number to thrive?”

The basis of economic prosperity is largely on the activities of the component population. The degree of activities in the population has a direct impact on economic growth. Nigeria is made up of States, and the States are made up of Local Governments. In each of these local government areas, we have usually 1 or 2 midsized towns. For consistency of definitions, it is important I share some definitions and the focus will primarily be on populations and not other infrastructure that should accompany the definitions.

High Density

More than one million.

• Megalopolis — a group of conurbations, consisting of more than ten million people in total.
• Conurbation — a group of metropolises, consisting of three to ten million people.
• Metropolis — a large city and its suburbs consisting of multiple cities and towns. The population is usually one to three million.

Mid Density

Less than one million.

• Large city — a city with a large population. The population is less than 1 million but over 300,000.
• Medium city — The population of a city is between 100,000 and 300,000 people.

Low Density

• Large town — a large town has a population of 10,000 to 100,000.
• Small Town — a town has a population of 1,000 to 10,000.

Lagos, Port Harcourt, Abuja, and Kano are the largest ‘areas’ in Nigeria, and they contribute significantly to the overall GDP of the country. Under normal circumstances, there will be more economic activities in the Large town (10k to 100k), as compared to a Small Town (1k to 10k). So, a local government that has many Large Towns will thrive better than one with Small Towns. This is consistent with what we currently have in Nigeria, as the GDP of states with most people tend to be larger than those with small. I am interested in reading from researchers who have done further research on population density and the economy, particularly on local governments for further analysis.

Another perspective to look at is the Government’s ability to provide social services that improve the quality of life of the citizens. Improved quality of life is synonymous with prosperity, thereby the citizens can become more economically active and create more wealth. Using the low-density cluster as an example, it would cost a lot more to build 10 schools in 10 towns than build 10 schools in 1 town. Security is a topical issue in Nigeria, and it would be considerably easier to police 1 medium-sized city than to police 30 small towns.

Having a lot of small towns would expose us to a lot of ungoverned spaces in states, and that comes with its attendant risks and concerns. Whilst I know that people tend to be attached to the land of their grandparents and forebearers, it is also important to know that for centuries, people have always migrated and primarily for economic and security reasons. It is important that the Government creates sufficient incentives for residents of small towns to move to large towns or medium cities, or cluster together to create one.

Solving the poverty question is not a one-solution street. There are many interventions to be considered. Increased economic activity improves wealth creation and income redistribution. Having bigger towns and cities help improve opportunities for prosperity. The evidence actually supports this, because year on year, we will see increased Rural-Urban migration patterns. Bigger cities create more opportunities for wealth creation than smaller cities.

I am not ignorant of the many traditions to consider such as Kingships, clanship, heritages, etc but decisions must be made for the greater good of all and we all must evolve.

Olamide Eyinla shares his thoughts from Lagos, Nigeria.